Remarks by Commissioner Dombrovskis at the Eurogroup press conference

Thank you. Good afternoon everyone.

Let me begin with our exchange on the economic outlook.

The economic outlook is, of course, getting more and more unpredictable, and is coloured by the impact of the Trump Administrations' imposition of universal tariffs on almost the whole world.

We welcome the 90 days pause on reciprocal tariffs above 10%.

It creates space for negotiations.

However, we should not forget that the 10% reciprocal tariffs remain in place for almost all countries and they represent a blow to the global economy.

Furthermore, the US has not paused its 25% tariff on steel and aluminium and also the 25% tariff on cars and car parts.

The nature of these rapidly moving developments makes it difficult to assess their impact on the EU's economic outlook.

What is clear, and what ministers in today's meeting agreed on, is that the US itself will be the first and most hit by the tariffs.

The imposition of tariffs will weaken the US economy by reducing consumers' purchasing power, real wages and making imported intermediate goods for production more expensive.

Beyond the direct effects of tariffs, however, an additional loss of investor confidence in the US economy could further aggravate the negative impact on GDP.

According to our latest model simulations on the US tariff impact, US GDP would be reduced by 0.8% to 1.4% until 2027.

The negative impact on the EU would be less than for the US, about 0.2% of GDP.

If tariffs are perceived to be permanent or if there are further countermeasures the economic consequences would be more negative: up to 3.1%-3.3% for the US, and 0.5%-0.6% for the EU and 1.2% for world GDP, while global trade would decline by 7.7% in three years' time.

These model simulations do not account for an additional loss of investor and business confidence in the US economy, which would further the negative GDP impact, as I outlined before.

Given the extraordinary uncertainty and frequently changing tariff decisions, our model simulations cannot be fully precise.

But they do show the overall trend that tariffs are damaging for prosperity.

So, let me make it clear: Europe did not start this confrontation, and Europe does not want this confrontation.

Tariffs go against the political and economic logic of deep and longstanding transatlantic trading partnership, valued at €1.6 trillion in 2023.

This is the largest trade and investment partnership in the world.

Global financial markets have already reacted badly to these developments, with massive volatility and selloffs in recent days.

The Commission will continue to closely monitor financial developments in the days and weeks ahead.

We are ready to negotiate a mutually acceptable outcome, while defending our own economic interests.

There is no need to continue to hurt the US' own and our economy.

In fact, we have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods.

But of course, if needs be, we are also ready to respond with countermeasures to protect our interests, our people and our companies.

At the same time, the EU will continue the work on deepening the EU's Single Market, enhancing our competitiveness, and diversifying our trade with other partners.

Given the overall challenging economic environment, we welcome Germany's infrastructure plan and reform of the debt break.

An increase in investment in Germany could contribute to increase its growth potential and lead to positive spillovers within the EU.

We look forward to receiving Germany's mid-term fiscal plan shortly after the new government has taken office. 

We also held a short discussion on preparations for the upcoming Spring meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund.

At this challenging time, the EU remains committed to the rules-based international order and engaging with its international partners through multilateral fora, including the G20 and G7.

I will stop here. Thank you.